In Search Of Normalcy
In an earlier blog post I mentioned that we were considering options for getting out of our apartment. Parks are closed, we have no yard, and the virus was literally at our doorstep with a confirmed case in our building. We had no semblance of normalcy.
There's too much uncertainty to make a permanent move, but we decided to take action on one of our options: Temporarily renting a home.
Yesterday we loaded up the kids, the cat, and as much food as we could, and we fled the city for the hills.
So far, this course of action has worked out well. There's a little more sanity and a lot less corona-stress. A lot more time outside and a little less screen time. We hadn't been outside of our apartment in 4 days.
There has been some public criticism of "rich people" doing what we just did -- leaving the city to infect the country, using their privilege to escape when others can't, buying their way to safety.
It's true that renting a home costs money and we're very lucky to have the means to do this. We have a favorable work situation. We have the means to make choices -- a fact that was true before the crisis and will probably be true after the crisis.
Our number one priority is to stay healthy and this course of action supports that priority. Moving out here increases our ability to maintain social distance, which protect us and others (if we are unknowing carriers).
We'll see how this goes. If social distancing goes on for several more weeks or months, we'll probably continue to do this.
Which leads me to my next thought ... how long is social distancing going to continue?
I think I have decent information sources, and based on numerous sources the science seems to indicate a long haul. I highly recommend a recent podcast: Peter Attia's The Drive, with guest Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert.
This has implications for life and investing. We simply don't know when all will be back to normal. The new normal might be different from the old normal.
Recent stock market advances were based on oversold conditions and a certain degree of optimism regarding government assistance and the economy's ability to bounce back in a reasonable timeframe. In my opinion, the economic recovery will be linked to the trajectory of the disease. If the disease requires a long haul ... well, you can see where I'm going with this.
I like to be optimistic, and I think some surprisingly good things could happen. We could discover a breakthrough treatment tomorrow. But, I'm not going "all in" on the economy or the stock market with this degree of uncertainty. Surprisingly bad things could happen too. Unfortunately.
I don't need to make a binary prediction. I want to invest in such a way that I'm prepared for multiple outcomes.
In a very practical sense, I'm sticking to my playbook of buying the indices on big declines. I've currently invested 25-30% of my "dry powder." I almost sold some after the recent advance, but I don't want too much short term churn. With every purchase, I'm comfortable with the amount I'm allocating at that price in a range of outcomes.
Meaning: If the market goes up from that point, I'm happy with my risk exposure. If the market goes down from that point, I'm happy with my risk exposure.
What I want to avoid is too much or too little risk exposure, causing me to be unhappy if the market goes up or down.
What I'm Reading and Watching: The Northman Trader. He writes and tweets and records really useful YouTube videos.
What I'm Playing: Sports outside and the Exploding Kittens card game inside. It's hilarious.
Note: I may receive a commission if you use affiliate links to buy, for example, this fun game. It's not why I write the blog.
Stoic / Mindful Thought: Kids say the darnedest things.
Final Thought: I hope this crisis spurs a new appreciation of the outdoors and in-person gatherings. I fear this crisis will only increase our reliance on technology and the virtual world. The internet and video chat have been invaluable to helping people stay connected virtually when they can't stay connected physically. Screens are not all bad. Can humans find the right balance?
There's too much uncertainty to make a permanent move, but we decided to take action on one of our options: Temporarily renting a home.
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| This is not where we are right now. It's a memory from when we could travel without worrying about a virus. |
Getting Out Of Dodge
Yesterday we loaded up the kids, the cat, and as much food as we could, and we fled the city for the hills.
So far, this course of action has worked out well. There's a little more sanity and a lot less corona-stress. A lot more time outside and a little less screen time. We hadn't been outside of our apartment in 4 days.
There has been some public criticism of "rich people" doing what we just did -- leaving the city to infect the country, using their privilege to escape when others can't, buying their way to safety.
It's true that renting a home costs money and we're very lucky to have the means to do this. We have a favorable work situation. We have the means to make choices -- a fact that was true before the crisis and will probably be true after the crisis.
Our number one priority is to stay healthy and this course of action supports that priority. Moving out here increases our ability to maintain social distance, which protect us and others (if we are unknowing carriers).
We'll see how this goes. If social distancing goes on for several more weeks or months, we'll probably continue to do this.
Which leads me to my next thought ... how long is social distancing going to continue?
Will Normal Still Be Normal When We're Back To Normal?
I think I have decent information sources, and based on numerous sources the science seems to indicate a long haul. I highly recommend a recent podcast: Peter Attia's The Drive, with guest Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert.
This has implications for life and investing. We simply don't know when all will be back to normal. The new normal might be different from the old normal.
Recent stock market advances were based on oversold conditions and a certain degree of optimism regarding government assistance and the economy's ability to bounce back in a reasonable timeframe. In my opinion, the economic recovery will be linked to the trajectory of the disease. If the disease requires a long haul ... well, you can see where I'm going with this.
I like to be optimistic, and I think some surprisingly good things could happen. We could discover a breakthrough treatment tomorrow. But, I'm not going "all in" on the economy or the stock market with this degree of uncertainty. Surprisingly bad things could happen too. Unfortunately.
I don't need to make a binary prediction. I want to invest in such a way that I'm prepared for multiple outcomes.
In a very practical sense, I'm sticking to my playbook of buying the indices on big declines. I've currently invested 25-30% of my "dry powder." I almost sold some after the recent advance, but I don't want too much short term churn. With every purchase, I'm comfortable with the amount I'm allocating at that price in a range of outcomes.
Meaning: If the market goes up from that point, I'm happy with my risk exposure. If the market goes down from that point, I'm happy with my risk exposure.
What I want to avoid is too much or too little risk exposure, causing me to be unhappy if the market goes up or down.
What I'm Reading and Watching: The Northman Trader. He writes and tweets and records really useful YouTube videos.
What I'm Playing: Sports outside and the Exploding Kittens card game inside. It's hilarious.
Note: I may receive a commission if you use affiliate links to buy, for example, this fun game. It's not why I write the blog.
Stoic / Mindful Thought: Kids say the darnedest things.
Final Thought: I hope this crisis spurs a new appreciation of the outdoors and in-person gatherings. I fear this crisis will only increase our reliance on technology and the virtual world. The internet and video chat have been invaluable to helping people stay connected virtually when they can't stay connected physically. Screens are not all bad. Can humans find the right balance?
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