Redrafting a Winning Team

When I started really investing in stocks again during the pandemic, I did a good job of legging into stocks while the market was going down. I had a plan ahead of time and the cash and time to execute that plan. 

Well here we are again with a difficult market and I'm not as prepared as I was. I have less time because I'm not riding out the pandemic from a lake house. And, like many investors, I let my tech shares go too fast and too far. I lost sight of an earlier post, Drafting a Winning Team, and let my portfolio become less diversified.

The beautiful thing about current brokerages is that one can quickly adjust a portfolio without incurring commission costs. 

So here's a current look at my portfolio by sectors.

WHAT I LIKE: Commodities and Shipping are well placed right now. Within this sector I'm focused on Brazilian companies (EWZ) that have a lot of exposure to oil and gas and mining. There are some financials thrown in the EWZ as well, which would do well with rising rates. P/E is below 10 and the dividend is hefty. It could be my pick of the year, actually. Long term chart looks good in terms of risk reward. 

I also have some Deere and BHP in this bucket. I remember 2008 very well, commodities were just rocketing. Which is also a warning. Like tech, what goes up can also go down.

WHAT I DON'T LIKE:  I still have too much tech and biotech and e-commerce, which tend to trade together. Big Tech, E-commerce, Crispr ... all that amounts to around 50% of the portfolio. Not good. Now I do see distinctions between a cyber security company and a gene editing company and Disney, which I put in the Tech bucket for some reason. That said, this is not the diversification I want. 

WHAT I WANT INSTEAD: The question is, what to add? I am tempted to add some gold / silver in the short term. I could also start looking at sectors I don't normally look at, like retail. 

Probably a better idea would be markets that trade differently, like REITs and Muni bonds. 

Here's an aspirational portfolio:

I'm not sure if this is exactly right but it's closer to right than what I have now. Overweight commodities and metals and financials. Some REITs and tax advantaged muni bonds. Some tech / biotech. 

Of course, this entire portfolio is only the portion that I actively manage. I have more in index funds, farmland, commercial real estate, and a business. And a pension. That said, I want the actively managed portion to be great and not suck. Thus, the attention.  

OTHER LIFE REMINDERS

It's Lent and I'm not wandering through the desert but trying to recognize the important basics of good living. Less junk food in my physical and mental diets. More focus. More exercise. More connection with people. Maybe even more blog writing.

I get sucked into goal setting sometimes. Usually it serves me well but the other day I heard someone critique this idea of always going toward a milestone. Life is not just a linear quest. Plenty of life is to be enjoyed for itself: art, music, fiction, food, sport. 

WHAT I'M READING: Ready Player Two. Just finished Falling, a thriller. Eh it was ok.

WHAT I'M LISTENING TO: Death Cab For Cutie radio on XM. Forgot how much I liked them. 

WHAT I'M WATCHING: Nothing currently. Caught up on Ozark. Looking for the next thing.