There Will Be Days Like Today
In post-apocalyptic movies, kids are often heroes. They are brave when their parents need them to be brave, they are serious and sober, they "grew up too soon."
In our pandemic home movie, the kids are bat shit crazy.
The proximate cause is that the cat woke them up at 4am, and their tiny brains are unable to overcome chemical imbalance precipitated by the lack of sleep. Cf. the book Why We Sleep by Matthew Walker.
The other reasons might be cabin fever, too much screen time, too little outdoor time (though we did get out yesterday), poor parenting, or just the random rhythm of life. A butterfly sneezed in Kenya. Who knows?
Whatever the cause, the kids are having a rough day. The parents have given up on home school and are inthe fetal position survival mode.
Ok, deep breath. Some days will be like today.
We've had some pretty good days. Like the stock market, there will be plenty of volatility.
Speaking of the stock market ...
I'm not really chasing anything here, one way or the other. I made big, longer term investments on the way down. I want to be buying during the big drops. We had that panic drop.
Now, we've had a strong move up off the lows. This has been the best week since the 1930s, which shows how extraordinary this is. That was 90 years ago, and the markets were treacherous.
These are emotional moves exacerbated by government intervention and machine-based trading.
The most bullish thing I'm seeing: Certain companies are finding their footing based on perceived value. Some bank stocks, for example, are trading close to book value, which is historically a good time to buy.
The most bearish thing I'm seeing: Small cap stocks are starting to lag again.
Overall, it's difficult for me to get too bullish here. A big criticism of recent economic growth and multiple expansion was that it was fueled by debt. Same goes for personal finances. Many companies and families simply can't survive 2 months with no revenue. The stimulus will help, but it's very unclear how we will get back to "normal." The market is trying to anticipate the end of the crisis, but I think we need more time (and probably lower valuations) to feel better about taking on loads of investment risk.
In our pandemic home movie, the kids are bat shit crazy.
The proximate cause is that the cat woke them up at 4am, and their tiny brains are unable to overcome chemical imbalance precipitated by the lack of sleep. Cf. the book Why We Sleep by Matthew Walker.
The other reasons might be cabin fever, too much screen time, too little outdoor time (though we did get out yesterday), poor parenting, or just the random rhythm of life. A butterfly sneezed in Kenya. Who knows?
Whatever the cause, the kids are having a rough day. The parents have given up on home school and are in
Ok, deep breath. Some days will be like today.
We've had some pretty good days. Like the stock market, there will be plenty of volatility.
Speaking of the stock market ...
I'm not really chasing anything here, one way or the other. I made big, longer term investments on the way down. I want to be buying during the big drops. We had that panic drop.
Now, we've had a strong move up off the lows. This has been the best week since the 1930s, which shows how extraordinary this is. That was 90 years ago, and the markets were treacherous.
These are emotional moves exacerbated by government intervention and machine-based trading.
The most bullish thing I'm seeing: Certain companies are finding their footing based on perceived value. Some bank stocks, for example, are trading close to book value, which is historically a good time to buy.
The most bearish thing I'm seeing: Small cap stocks are starting to lag again.
Overall, it's difficult for me to get too bullish here. A big criticism of recent economic growth and multiple expansion was that it was fueled by debt. Same goes for personal finances. Many companies and families simply can't survive 2 months with no revenue. The stimulus will help, but it's very unclear how we will get back to "normal." The market is trying to anticipate the end of the crisis, but I think we need more time (and probably lower valuations) to feel better about taking on loads of investment risk.
What I'm Reading ...
The tea leaves.
Stoic / Mindful Thought ...
Emotions aren't instructions.
What I'm Listening To ...
The annoying Youtube videos my kids watch, which is better than their crazy yelling so I'll take it.
What I'm Watching ...
Ozark on Netflix.
Final Thought ...
We've decided to try out a short term rental house near a lake next week. It's worth a shot. Maybe we will all feel better with more time outside. If social distancing needs to continue for several months, we should figure out if getting away occasionally should be part of our survival plan.
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